Risk matrix (likelihood × impact) calculator
Write or paste each risk with a name, a likelihood (1–5) and an impact (1–5). The score is likelihood × impact; set the band thresholds to your own policy. See the number of risks in each matrix cell, the list ranked by score and the risks above the action threshold.
One row each: name; likelihood (1–5); impact (1–5). The separator can be tab, semicolon or comma; a header row is skipped. You can copy and paste from Excel.
Band thresholds (example values)
Score ≤ low threshold: low; ≤ medium: medium; ≤ high: high; above: very high. Thresholds must be whole numbers from 1 to 24 in ascending order.
The calculation runs in your browser; the risks you type are not sent anywhere.
- Total risks
- 8
- Risks above the action threshold (> 9)
- 4
Risk matrix
Impact ↑
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5· | 101 | 151 | 20· | 25· |
| 4 | 4· | 81 | 12· | 16· | 20· |
| 3 | 3· | 61 | 9· | 121 | 151 |
| 2 | 2· | 4· | 61 | 81 | 10· |
| 1 | 1· | 2· | 3· | 4· | 5· |
Likelihood →
Likelihood: 1 Very rare · 2 Rare · 3 Possible · 4 Likely · 5 Almost certain
Impact: 1 Negligible · 2 Minor · 3 Moderate · 4 Major · 5 Severe
- Low 0
- Medium 4
- High 4
- Very high 0
In each cell: score (small) and number of risks (large). Darkness shows the band level.
Ranked risk list
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Score | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main gearbox bearing failure | 3 | 5 | 15 | High |
| Lack of lubrication | 5 | 3 | 15 | High |
| Compressor valve leak | 4 | 3 | 12 | High |
| Hydraulic hose burst | 2 | 5 | 10 | High |
| Conveyor motor overheating | 2 | 4 | 8 | Medium |
| Pump mechanical seal | 4 | 2 | 8 | Medium |
| Drive board failure | 2 | 3 | 6 | Medium |
| Sensor drift | 3 | 2 | 6 | Medium |
Band names and thresholds are not a fixed standard; your organisation's risk policy sets them. The default thresholds here (4 / 9 / 16) are examples only.
Assumptions
- The score is the product of likelihood and impact; the product treats ordinal values (1–5) as numbers, which may not show real risk differences as evenly spaced.
- Two risks with the same score (for example 3×4 and 4×3) are of a different nature; they appear in separate cells and the one with the higher impact is ranked first.
- What the likelihood and impact scales mean (time, cost, safety) must be defined by your organisation; the tool only processes the 1–5 points.
- The matrix is a prioritisation aid; it does not decide whether a risk is acceptable or what control is needed.
score = likelihood × impact (1–25) · band: score ≤ low → low, ≤ medium → medium, ≤ high → high, otherwise very high
The result is an arrangement of the scores you entered, not a risk assessment itself. For safety-critical assets the decision should be taken together with the relevant maintenance and safety specialists.
Let's look at which assets warn before they fail and how you can back your risk scores with data.
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How to use it
A
Paste the risk rows (name; likelihood; impact) or add them from the form; you can also start with the sample data.
B
Set the band thresholds to your own policy and choose the action threshold.
C
Read the distribution in the matrix, the list ranked by score and the risks above the threshold; take the list as CSV.
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What is a risk matrix for?
Maintenance and asset management face many possible failures, and action cannot be taken on all of them at once. A risk matrix scores each risk with two questions: how likely is it, and how large is the impact if it happens? The product of the two helps you rank the risks and choose which to look at first.
A 5×5 structure is a common choice, but point definitions and band names differ in each organisation. That is why the tool lets you set the band thresholds yourself.
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Thresholds and the action threshold
The score ranges from 1 to 25. The low, medium, high and very high bands are separated by three thresholds; the default 4 / 9 / 16 is only an example. The action threshold is the limit above which you say "this should be examined or controls planned", and how many risks stay above it is counted separately.
When you change the thresholds the matrix and the list update at once. The thresholds are checked for consistency: they must be whole numbers, ascending and within 1–24.
04
Scores backed by data
A likelihood score is often a guess. Condition monitoring data such as vibration, temperature or current shows more concretely how likely a failure is and can raise or lower the likelihood score.
For the impact score, map criteria such as downtime, repair cost and safety effect onto a scale defined by your organisation, so that different assessors give the same score.
FAQ
- How is the score calculated?
- Score = likelihood × impact, from 1 to 25. For example a risk with likelihood 3 and impact 5 has a score of 15.
- Are the default 4 / 9 / 16 thresholds a standard?
- No, they are only an example. Which score counts as low, medium, high or very high is set by your organisation's risk policy; change the thresholds as you wish.
- What does the action threshold mean?
- It is the limit above which risks should be examined or controls taken. The tool shows separately how many risks exceed it. The default is the upper limit of the medium band.
- How are risks with the same score ranked?
- Among equal scores the one with the higher impact comes first; if still equal, by name. Risks with a large impact but low likelihood are often treated differently from those with high likelihood and small impact.
- Can I paste a large list?
- Yes; up to 5,000 rows are processed. In Excel select the name, likelihood and impact columns, copy and paste. Unreadable rows are reported with their numbers.
Let's back your risk scores with failure data
Let's look at which assets warn before they fail and what that means for your risk scores and maintenance priorities.